Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis
Identifieur interne : 000726 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000725; suivant : 000727Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis
Auteurs : Nicholas H. Ogden [Canada] ; Milka Radojevic [Canada] ; Xiaotian Wu [Canada] ; Venkata R. Duvvuri [Canada] ; Patrick A. Leighton [Canada] ; Jianhong Wu [Canada]Source :
- Environmental Health Perspectives [ 0091-6765 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
Background: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate.
Objectives: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (
Methods: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an
Results:
Conclusions: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.
Citation: Ogden NH, Radojević M, Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Leighton PA, Wu J. 2014. Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector
Url:
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1307799
PubMed: 24627295
PubMed Central: 4050516
Affiliations:
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Ogden</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">These authors are equal first authors.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Radojevic, Milka" sort="Radojevic, Milka" uniqKey="Radojevic M" first="Milka" last="Radojevic">Milka Radojevic</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">These authors are equal first authors.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Xiaotian" sort="Wu, Xiaotian" uniqKey="Wu X" first="Xiaotian" last="Wu">Xiaotian Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">These authors are equal first authors.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Duvvuri, Venkata R" sort="Duvvuri, Venkata R" uniqKey="Duvvuri V" first="Venkata R." last="Duvvuri">Venkata R. Duvvuri</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leighton, Patrick A" sort="Leighton, Patrick A" uniqKey="Leighton P" first="Patrick A." last="Leighton">Patrick A. Leighton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">24627295</idno><idno type="pmc">4050516</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4050516</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4050516</idno><idno type="doi">10.1289/ehp.1307799</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000954</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000954</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000954</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000954</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000512</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000512</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000A17</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000A17</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000A17</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0091-6765:2014:Ogden N:estimated:effects:of</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000727</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000726</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000726</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector <italic>Ixodes scapularis</italic></title><author><name sortKey="Ogden, Nicholas H" sort="Ogden, Nicholas H" uniqKey="Ogden N" first="Nicholas H." last="Ogden">Nicholas H. Ogden</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">These authors are equal first authors.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Radojevic, Milka" sort="Radojevic, Milka" uniqKey="Radojevic M" first="Milka" last="Radojevic">Milka Radojevic</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">These authors are equal first authors.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Xiaotian" sort="Wu, Xiaotian" uniqKey="Wu X" first="Xiaotian" last="Wu">Xiaotian Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">These authors are equal first authors.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Duvvuri, Venkata R" sort="Duvvuri, Venkata R" uniqKey="Duvvuri V" first="Venkata R." last="Duvvuri">Venkata R. Duvvuri</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leighton, Patrick A" sort="Leighton, Patrick A" uniqKey="Leighton P" first="Patrick A." last="Leighton">Patrick A. Leighton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ontario</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Environmental Health Perspectives</title><idno type="ISSN">0091-6765</idno><idno type="eISSN">1552-9924</idno><imprint><date when="2014">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Background: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate.</p><p>Objectives: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, <italic>Ixodes scapularis</italic>, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general.</p><p>Methods: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an <italic>I. scapularis</italic> population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>. Modeled <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> increases were compared with <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance.</p><p>Results: <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for <italic>I. scapularis</italic> in North America increased during the years 1971–2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> by factors (2–5 times in Canada and 1.5–2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts.</p><p>Conclusions: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.</p><p>Citation: Ogden NH, Radojević M, Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Leighton PA, Wu J. 2014. Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector <italic>Ixodes scapularis</italic>. Environ Health Perspect 122:631–638; <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307799">http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307799</ext-link></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Jf" uniqKey="Anderson J">JF Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Duray, Ph" uniqKey="Duray P">PH Duray</name></author><author><name sortKey="Magnarelli, La" uniqKey="Magnarelli L">LA Magnarelli</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Barbour, Ag" uniqKey="Barbour A">AG Barbour</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fish, D" uniqKey="Fish D">D Fish</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bauch, Ct" uniqKey="Bauch C">CT Bauch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coffee, Mp" uniqKey="Coffee M">MP 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Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Meeyai, A" uniqKey="Meeyai A">A Meeyai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hinsley, W" uniqKey="Hinsley W">W Hinsley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tuite, Ar" uniqKey="Tuite A">AR Tuite</name></author><author><name sortKey="Greer, Al" uniqKey="Greer A">AL Greer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Whelan, M" uniqKey="Whelan M">M Whelan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Winter, Al" uniqKey="Winter A">AL Winter</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, B" uniqKey="Lee B">B Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, P" uniqKey="Yan P">P Yan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E">E Vynnycky</name></author><author><name sortKey="Trindall, A" uniqKey="Trindall A">A Trindall</name></author><author><name 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Jiang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country></list><tree><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ogden, Nicholas H" sort="Ogden, Nicholas H" uniqKey="Ogden N" first="Nicholas H." last="Ogden">Nicholas H. Ogden</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Duvvuri, Venkata R" sort="Duvvuri, Venkata R" uniqKey="Duvvuri V" first="Venkata R." last="Duvvuri">Venkata R. Duvvuri</name><name sortKey="Leighton, Patrick A" sort="Leighton, Patrick A" uniqKey="Leighton P" first="Patrick A." last="Leighton">Patrick A. Leighton</name><name sortKey="Radojevic, Milka" sort="Radojevic, Milka" uniqKey="Radojevic M" first="Milka" last="Radojevic">Milka Radojevic</name><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><name sortKey="Wu, Xiaotian" sort="Wu, Xiaotian" uniqKey="Wu X" first="Xiaotian" last="Wu">Xiaotian Wu</name><name sortKey="Wu, Xiaotian" sort="Wu, Xiaotian" uniqKey="Wu X" first="Xiaotian" last="Wu">Xiaotian Wu</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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